Iran, The Consequences

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Iran, The Consequences

Postby van » Mon Apr 02, 2007 3:01 am

Kia ora

The military buildup in the ME waters does not augur well, "Gunboat Diplomacy"?
Unlike Iraq, Iran has not suffered from sanctions and is armed to the teeth, plus has a dedicated army(450,000) willing to fight to the death
The Russians predict an attack at 00.40 on April 6th (NZ time 7th)
Picture the scenario if you will
Nuclear powered Warships, little room to manoeuvre , not likely to be welcomed with "rice and roses"
At the first sign of "incoming" a barrage of sophisticated Russian/Chinese surface missiles unleashed at these nuclear powered ships
They are bound to at least hit one
Given their technology, assume they sink it
The reactor goes critical, while my knowledge of nuclear physics/technology is minimal, at the very least expect a "mini Chernobyl"
Even if the shipping lane is not blocked(it's narrow) there will be a future gauntlet of radiation to navigate
Should more then one be sunk, the problem is multiplied
The Muslim world despite its divisions will be in uproar and seek revenge
Europe and the States will be targeted
The tenure of Musharraf, Pakistani puppet, already precarious, may well be overthrown, with the consequence of IBM launches directed at the USA and Israel
Russia and China, sitting on the sidelines, biding their time
Expect the Saudi throne to be threatened, if not removed, likewise Egypt
And all for what?

"Stupidity is an inherited condition of man"

Arohanui
Shalom
Bill

PS, Serious comments only
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Postby AJRC_CS » Mon Apr 02, 2007 3:44 am

The one thing you have to be careful of with Iran, is the "Big Red Giant." China imports over half of Iran's oil, if this is threatened then China might just do something about it. You have to remember that since their economy has sky rocketed above everyone else's, China have had the money to spend on the latest technology. Their military is now a phenomenal force, air, ground and sea. China has been making noises ever since Dubya first started making threats towards Iran, and they are not friendly noises! China showed last year how they could take out all of the US satellites leaving the US military blind. If China wants to get involved, then whoever attacks Iran is in big trouble.

This is all conjecture of course, only one scenario that could happen. Remember Iraq was said to have a big Army willing to fight to the death in 91. I was there, the only Army that put up any resistance was the Republican Guard, and even they were no match for us. Iran could be a hard nut to crack depending on who fights with them, on their own i don't think they would last long. But as you said, Van. I think they would do a lot of damage before they gave up.
The ignorant close their mind and convince themselves that there's only one truth. The wise keep an open mind to the different possibilities leading to and stemming from the present. Look not with your eyes but with your mind.
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Postby van » Mon Apr 02, 2007 4:21 am

Kia ora Andy

The one thing you have to be careful of with Iran, is the "Big Red Giant." China imports over half of Iran's oil, if this is threatened then China might just do something about it.


Thanks for the "heads up", rather reminiscent of the Japanese in WW2 having their "life blood" cutoff and its "expected" outcome, had not considered that
Of interest, the USA, being aware of the attack on Pearl Harbour, moved out it's most modern fleet just prior to the attack
In this case that appears to be not so
Over confidence??
In the case of Iraq retreating from Kuwait, the "highway of death"/"shooting fish in a barrel" maybe a price to be paid in the confines of the Gulf with its narrow waterways

Remember Iraq was said to have a big Army willing to fight to the death in 91. I was there, the only Army that put up any resistance was the Republican Guard, and even they were no match for us


I appreciate your comment, but have reservations about it
Iraq, conscripts, Sunni/Shia/Kurds divide, Iran Shia, very nationalistic

Iran could be a hard nut to crack depending on who fights with them, on their own i don't think they would last long. But as you said, Van. I think they would do a lot of damage before they gave up.


Little concrete intelligence exists on Iran
They don't have to last long, the cobra's strike is short but deadly
Is the price (consequences) worth it?

A common misconception about Iran, they are not Arabs, but Persian, they have kicked ass before, and proud of it, you don't destroy that in a short period of time, the memory is always there, and lives on

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